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The future of HIV/AIDS in India

There are many predictions about the effect that AIDS will have on India in the future, and a lot of dispute about the accuracy of these estimates. For instance, CIA's National Intelligence Council reported in 2002 that 20 million to 25 million AIDS cases in India by 2010, Which is more than any other country in the world. However, the government claimed that these figures are inaccurate.

Ruben del Prado, deputy UNAIDS country coordinator for India, has predicted that "there is going to be reversal of the epidemic by 2008 and 2009.

This does not correlate with other UN-related estimates, however, which have suggested that:

  1. India's adult HIV prevalence will peak at 1.9% in 2019.
  2. The number of AIDS deaths in India (Which was estimated at 2.7 million for the period 1980-2000) will rise to 12.3 million during 2000-15, and to 49.5 million during 2015-50.
  3. Economic growth in India will slow by almost a percentage point per year as a result of AIDS by 2019.

" The challenges India faces to overcome this epidemic are enormous. Yet India possesses in ample quantities all the resources needed to achieve universal access to HIV prevention and treatment... defeating AIDS will require a significant intensification of our efforts, in India, just as in the rest of the world".

- Peter Piot, Director of UNAIDS.