There are many predictions about the effect that AIDS
will have on India in the future, and a lot of dispute
about the accuracy of these estimates. For instance, CIA's
National Intelligence Council reported in 2002 that 20
million to 25 million AIDS cases in India by 2010, Which
is more than any other country in the world. However, the
government claimed that these figures are inaccurate.
Ruben del Prado, deputy UNAIDS country coordinator for
India, has predicted that "there is going to be
reversal of the epidemic by 2008 and 2009.
This does not correlate with other UN-related estimates,
however, which have suggested that:
- India's adult HIV prevalence will peak at 1.9% in 2019.
- The number of AIDS deaths in India (Which was estimated
at 2.7 million for the period 1980-2000) will
rise to 12.3 million during 2000-15, and to 49.5
- Economic growth in India will slow by almost
a percentage point per year as a result of
AIDS by 2019.
The challenges India faces to overcome this epidemic
are enormous. Yet India possesses in ample quantities
all the resources needed to achieve universal access
to HIV prevention and treatment... defeating AIDS will
require a significant intensification of our efforts,
in India, just as in the rest of the world".
- Peter Piot, Director of UNAIDS.